A revised bipartisan US Senate bill proposes authorising the president to impose tariffs up to 100% on imports from the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including India, if Russia refuses peace negotiations or violates a future peace deal. The earlier draft proposed 500% tariffs. Russia accounts for roughly half of India's crude oil imports as of June, per Kpler data. The bill must pass both chambers and receive presidential approval before becoming law.

This bill sits at the intersection of three exam-critical themes: energy security, geopolitical realignment, and trade policy as foreign policy. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, India strategically ramped up purchases of discounted Russian crude — exploiting a global price gap that allowed Indian refiners to import cheap feedstock, process it, and export refined products profitably, including to Europe. This made India Russia's second-largest oil customer after China.

Washington's concern is straightforward: continued purchases of Russian energy sustain Moscow's war revenues. By targeting buyers rather than just the seller, the US is effectively weaponising market access — a significant escalation in sanctions architecture. For India, this creates a genuine dilemma: energy affordability versus trade access to the world's largest economy. India exports roughly $75–80 billion worth of goods to the US annually, making the bilateral trade relationship deeply consequential.

The bill's presidential waiver clause is diplomatically significant — it gives the US executive leverage without mandatory punishment, making it more of a coercive bargaining tool than a definitive sanction. For UPSC, the key analytical angles are: India's strategic autonomy doctrine, multi-alignment foreign policy, energy security vs. geopolitical alignment trade-offs, and the evolving global sanctions regime. The bill also raises WTO compatibility questions, as unilateral tariffs based on third-country sourcing decisions could violate MFN obligations.