NABARD expects agricultural credit to remain resilient in FY27, driven by higher input costs, expanded Kisan Credit Card coverage, and growing mechanisation investments. Farm credit disbursement grew from Rs 8.5 lakh crore in 2014-15 to Rs 30 lakh crore in 2025-26. Deputy MD Ajay Kumar Sood highlighted a shift towards long-term investment credit over short-term crop loans. Small farmers face vulnerability from rising borrowing costs on thin 5-10% margins. NABARD provided Rs 4.5 lakh crore concessional refinance in 2025-26.

NABARD's FY27 outlook reveals fundamental changes in India's agricultural credit landscape. The threefold growth in farm credit over a decade signals deepening financial inclusion but also raises sustainability questions. The shift from short-term crop loans to investment credit indicates structural transformation - farmers are moving beyond subsistence to capital-intensive agriculture through mechanisation and infrastructure. This aligns with government priorities for agricultural modernisation and productivity enhancement. However, the vulnerability of small farmers to interest rate fluctuations poses policy challenges. With 86% of operational holdings being small and marginal farms operating on razor-thin margins, even modest rate increases could trigger distress. NABARD's Rs 4.5 lakh crore refinance support demonstrates the institution's role as a liquidity provider to rural financial institutions. The geopolitical risk assessment around fertiliser supplies shows India's improved agricultural resilience through buffer stocks and diversified sourcing. This credit expansion must be viewed alongside financial inclusion metrics, NPA trends in agricultural lending, and the effectiveness of schemes like KCC in reaching intended beneficiaries.